Era il tipo di iniziativa audace e incentrata sul clima per la quale la California ha sviluppato una reputazione:un divieto effettivo della vendita di nuove auto a benzina entro il 2035.

Ma il voto storico della scorsa settimana da parte del California Air Resources Board segue una serie di azioni ambientali statali radicali che hanno avuto diversi gradi di successo.

Ora, mentre i funzionari cercano di cambiare radicalmente la cultura automobilistica della California, riducendo così la sua più grande fonte di emissioni di carbonio per il riscaldamento del pianeta e di inquinamento atmosferico, gli esperti affermano che queste iniziative passate potrebbero far luce sul funzionamento del piano automobilistico nazionale della California.

Qualità dell'aria e smog

A Los Angeles, il denso smog che un tempo soffocava la città è oggi considerato folklore. Nel peggiore dei casi, tra gli anni '50 e '80, la foschia caustica era così fitta che le persone potevano vedere solo fino a un isolato. Irritava la gola e i polmoni delle persone e dava loro occhi iniettati di sangue. All'epoca, secondo l'Air Resources Board, c'erano più di 200 giorni all'anno con aria malsana.

Da allora, ci sono stati enormi progressi verso la riduzione dello smog e dell'inquinamento atmosferico, in gran parte dovuti a automobili più pulite. La quantità di ossidi di azoto che formano smog è stata ridotta di oltre il 50% negli ultimi due decenni, migliorando notevolmente la salute pubblica.

Ma i progressi della California nella lotta all'inquinamento atmosferico sono stagnanti negli ultimi decenni e lo stato è ancora la patria del peggior inquinamento atmosferico della nazione. Il bacino aereo della costa meridionale, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside e parte delle contee di San Bernardino, non ha ancora soddisfatto gli standard sanitari federali per i livelli di ozono, inclusa la misura più antica adottata nel 1979.

"Se guardi indietro di 70 anni, abbiamo fatto un ottimo lavoro", ha affermato Joe Lyou, presidente della Coalition for Clean Air. "Se stai guardando indietro negli ultimi dieci o due anni, non così bene. E se stai guardando gli standard legali che richiedono di fornire aria sana alle persone per respirare, non stiamo andando affatto bene".

Il riscaldamento globale ha ulteriormente esacerbato il problema alimentando incendi e condizioni più favorevoli alla formazione di smog.

"I giorni di inquinamento atmosferico pericoloso sono fuori scala a causa della crescita degli incendi causati dal clima", ha affermato Will Barrett, direttore nazionale senior per la difesa dell'aria pulita per l'American Lung Association. "Sappiamo anche che l'ozono si forma quando le emissioni dei tubi di scappamento e altre emissioni si mescolano nell'atmosfera nei giorni caldi e soleggiati. Stiamo assistendo a più caldo, eventi meteorologici più estremi, che creano condizioni migliori per la formazione di ozono e minacciano la salute del suolo. Questi sono due crisi. Nascono dalle stesse fonti:le fonti di trasporto."

Ma è stata la capacità dello stato di affrontare e risolvere una grave crisi di smog che fa sperare ad alcuni esperti che possa trasformare anche i trasporti.

"La più grande pretesa di fama dell'Air Resources Board prima dell'era climatica era il suo ruolo nel creare e far rispettare l'adozione di convertitori catalitici e altre tecnologie per ridurre le emissioni di inquinamento che formava smog, che stava soffocando i principali centri metropolitani in entrambe la Bay Area e sulla costa meridionale", ha affermato Danny Cullenward, direttore delle politiche presso l'organizzazione di ricerca sul clima senza scopo di lucro CarbonPlan. "Quindi l'Air Resources Board come istituzione si è davvero fatto le ossa e ha avuto uno straordinario successo nei decenni precedenti, nell'affrontare solo un enorme problema che coinvolgeva tecnologie complicate, industrie potenti ... e problemi che influivano sulla vita quotidiana delle persone."

Cap-and-trade

Cap-and-trade, uno dei principali programmi climatici della California, è stato lanciato inizialmente nel 2006 con l'obiettivo di ridurre le emissioni di gas serra dello stato ai livelli del 1990 entro il 2020. Ha superato le aspettative e di fatto ha raggiunto l'obiettivo con quattro anni di anticipo.

Nel 2017, il programma è stato riautorizzato con un obiettivo molto più ambizioso:ridurre le emissioni di gas serra al 40% dei livelli del 1990 entro il 2030. Per arrivarci, il programma utilizza un sistema di crediti di inquinamento che consente essenzialmente ai grandi emettitori di carbonio di acquistare e vendere crediti inutilizzati con l'obiettivo di mantenere tutti al di sotto o al di sotto di un determinato totale.

Gli esperti dicono che ha funzionato solo in qualche modo. Sebbene il programma sia rimasto un elemento chiave della strategia climatica della California, le emissioni sono diminuite di circa l'11% nel 2020, lontano dall'obiettivo del 40%. Inoltre, quel numero probabilmente spiega le riduzioni delle emissioni legate all'inizio della pandemia di COVID-19.

"Le prove sono abbastanza chiare che non siamo sulla buona strada per quell'obiettivo, e la dipendenza da questo programma è una parte importante del motivo per cui non siamo sulla buona strada", ha detto Cullenward.

Il portavoce dell'Air Resources Board David Clegern ha dichiarato via e-mail che lo stato ha messo in atto le politiche per raggiungere il suo obiettivo, "ma arrivarci significa che è necessario attuare un'azione concertata sull'attuazione di politiche per ridurre i trasporti, gli inquinanti climatici di breve durata, l'elettricità e altre emissioni per raggiungere il 2030."

"Il fatto che lo stato abbia raggiunto il suo obiettivo per il 2020 con quattro anni di anticipo e il successo di programmi come il Low Carbon Fuel Standard e l'aggiunta di nuovi programmi significa che il ruolo del cap-and-trade potrebbe essere minore in futuro, ma ciò lo farà essere valutato dopo il rilascio del Piano di Scoping 2020 entro la fine dell'anno", ha affermato. The scoping plan is a roadmap for achieving carbon neutrality in the state, and is updated every five years.

Cullenward noted that the cap-and-trade program has some clear parallels to the advanced clean cars rule, including its plan to provide credits to auto manufacturers who sell more electric vehicles than they're required to. However, there are also some key differences that made him more optimistic about the gas car ban's prospects of success.

For one, he said, the Air Resources Board has historically had more strength as a regulator of mobile emission sources (such as cars) than of stationary ones such as factories and power plants, as evidenced by its earlier success with catalytic converters and smog reduction. What's more, while the industries regulated by cap-and-trade are "local, powerful and politically organized," the state has little in the way of combustion engine production.

Fossil fuels

Despite California's green reputation, it remains the seventh-highest oil producing state in the nation, extracting about 358,000 barrels per day, according to state data.

However, oil production has been declining for decades, and the California Geologic Energy Management Division, or CalGEM, reported that "more permits have been issued to plug and permanently seal existing wells than to drill new ones since 2019." The agency issued 564 new well permits in 2021, down from 1,917 in 2020 and 2,665 in 2019.

Some experts said that's not aggressive enough.

"This transition can't happen too slowly, because there is a climate crisis, and there are significant public health impacts on frontline communities," said Bahram Fazeli, director of research and policy at Communities for a Better Environment.

Although there are ambitions to phase out California's oil and gas production completely—most recently, Gov. Gavin Newsom set his sights on 2045—there has yet to be an official deadline such as the one for the gas car ban.

But the state has made some efforts to control or reduce oil production, including a proposed ban on new oil and gas wells within 3,200 feet of homes, schools and healthcare facilities. Newsom last summer also ordered a ban on new permits for hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, beginning in 2024.

"As we move to swiftly decarbonize our transportation sector and create a healthier future for our children, I've made it clear I don't see a role for fracking in that future and, similarly, believe that California needs to move beyond oil," the governor said at the time.

Fazeli noted that a recent study out of the University of Massachusetts Amherst found that achieving that transition by 2045 is feasible in California, though it would require a significant investment:About $138 billion per year, according to the study. But the fossil fuel industry is, by nature, opposed to such an existential threat, Fazeli said, and even passing "common sense" legislation such as the 3,200-foot buffer zone has proven challenging.

"California's economy is not different from other economies—the economy is a fossil fuel economy," he said. "So California is going through this growing pain of, how do we become a clean energy economy? How do we transition from a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy economy, and also provide good paying jobs? That's a key part of the puzzle."

Another part of the puzzle is balance, according to Kyle Meng, an associate professor of environmental economics at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

"When it comes to gasoline, you really need policies to deal with both the demand side—like the new car ban and subsidies for EVs—as well as the supply side, which is the production of oil," he said. "One without the other would lead to unexpected, adverse consequences."

For example, reducing demand without supply could mean California ends up exporting its excess oil, Meng said, while reducing supply too quickly could leave communities that rely on the industry in bad shape. In Kern County, one of the state's top producing regions, oil and gas extraction provide as much as 20% of the area's property tax revenue.

As in other sectors, equity remains a major concern, especially when it comes to the communities suffering the worst effects of oil and gas drilling, Meng said. But when considering the state's climate efforts thus far, he said there has been good progress.

"If you were to tell me that California would hit the state's 2020 greenhouse gas goals back in 2005, I wouldn't have believed it. But California did it," he said. "However, looking forward, the task for this decade is even more ambitious. The big open question is not just whether California can meet its 2030 greenhouse gas goals, but whether those goals are met in a way that doesn't exacerbate existing inequities across the state."

Vehicle miles traveled

Although phasing out gas-powered cars is one of the state's greatest priorities, that alone won't be enough. Driving habits must change, too, if the state expects to achieve carbon neutrality.

The state climate plan depends on motorists driving at least 12% fewer miles by 2030, and no fewer than 22% by 2045.

Since the advent of the automobile and the construction of the highway system, large cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco have become car-centric. Today, around 75% of daily commuting trips consist of one person driving with no passengers—a practice that remains the primary mode of transportation in California.

"Highway building and sprawl go hand in hand," said Susan Handy, a researcher at UC Davis who has studied strategies to reduce automobile dependence. "That's true in California, and it's also true everywhere else. When we built highways, it made it possible to develop farther from city centers than ever before. And now we're in a situation where we've got these sprawling development patterns and it makes it very hard to get around by means other than the car."

As the state's population has risen and more cars are on the road, state officials funded highway construction and expansion to ease congestion, which ironically fostered more driving.

The only major significant decreases in miles driven occur during economic downturns and, recently, with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 as more people have worked remotely. However, driving has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels.

Public policy strategy to reduce driving has historically included gas tax hikes or tolls, which could serve as a deterrent. But the state could do better at investments and incentivizing other forms of transportation like biking and mass transit, Handy said.

Much of California's plans have depended on providing financial incentives to trade in gas-powered cars for zero-emission vehicles. But some state officials have requested the state look into how driving behaviors might change if the state invests more in mass transit.

"I think it's tough, because we're a car culture, right?" Air Resources Board chair Liane Randolph said at a meeting in June. "We know how to help people buy cars. What we don't know is how to help people change the culture so that they are able to ride public transit in a way that's economical and equitable and efficient for them to get to work and to school and wherever they need to go."

Infrastructure

Infrastructure will play a huge role in California's transition away from gas cars, multiple experts said. Charging stations will be needed to help power electric vehicles, and electricity will be needed to power those charging stations, among myriad considerations.

So far, the state has established many goals to help get there, including plans to construct at least 250,000 public vehicle charging stations by the middle of the decade; 10,000 of which should be fast chargers, according to the California Public Utilities Commission. The state also plans to require landlords of multifamily housing units to provide residents with a means to charge electric cars, though those details are still being worked out.

And it's not only personal vehicles that will need the stations, but also the heavy-duty trucks that transport goods throughout the state every day. The twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach have the goal of being serviced exclusively by zero-emission trucks by 2035, but they have a long way to go:Only 35 of the 22,000 trucks that serve the port complex are "electric," "battery electric" or "hydrogen fuel cell," according to data from their clean truck program.

Though the state has made efforts to streamline the permit process for charging stations, mapping tools show huge gaps in their locations, particularly in inland Central California and far Northern California.

"We're nowhere close to where we need to be on infrastructure, especially charging infrastructure for electric vehicles, electric trucks, electric buses, electric off-road equipment," said Lyou, of the Coalition for Clean Air. "And it's emerged as the most challenging thing we have to do."

Another part of the problem is that recharging the batteries of electric cars and trucks could also lead to increased greenhouse gas emissions, depending on where that energy is coming from.

"If you're talking about California trying to move its emissions from gasoline cars into EVs, you're talking about probably doubling the amount of electricity demand on the grid," said Meng, of UC Santa Barbara. "Where's that going to come from? You could imagine large utility-scale solar in places like Kern County, but with the laws as they're written now, it's very hard for Kern County to get property tax benefits from a solar farm than it could from oil drilling." + Esplora ulteriormente

California phasing out gas vehicles in climate change fight

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